The US Artificial Intelligence Regulatory landscape

The development and acceleration of AI has created an evolving and ambiguous landscape across many jurisdictions. Donald Trump’s recent election win may well present a noticeable shift in US AI regulation. Researchers, practitioners and policymakers alike await how Trump’s return to office will not only impact the AI regulatory landscape in the US but the interaction with global AI governance initiatives around the world.

AI regulatory priorities

The Biden administration has focussed on responsible AI development; introducing several regulatory initiatives that cover core principles of security, transparency and accountability. It has positioned itself as a global leader in setting AI ethical standards, partnering with international organisations such as the United Nations. 

The Trump administration is set to repeal existing initiatives, AI polices and safeguards. A pledge made on his elective campaign trail in December 2023 and later reaffirmed by the Republican Party platform in July 2024 marks the repeal of the Biden Administration AI Executive Order signed in October 2023. An Order which sought to address threats that AI could pose to civil rights, privacy and national security. The repeal of this safeguard marks greater regulatory freedom for AI developers and fewer rigorous AI safety standards to adhere to. 

It is expected that the US will shift away from AI governance and instead focus on ‘championing innovation’ by adopting a deregulatory approach to promote research and development. 

The AI Manhattan project

The US and China are locked in a long-term strategic competition for global dominance. In November 2024, the bipartisan US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) released its annual report. 

Part of that proposal urges Congress to establish and fund a comprehensive, government backed Manhattan Project-like research program dedicated to acquiring Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability. AGI has the ability to match human capabilities across all cognitive domains including emotional response, decision-making and thought processing capabilities.

Despite America’s leadership in AI development, the proposal’s timing reflects the growing concerns about Chinese technological advancements as both nations seek to conquer the AI arms race. The Manhattan Project analogy marks an urgency for the US to step up and accelerate its scientific advancements in AI, unlocking the transformative potential and strategic importance of this technology. A key component of this proposal includes fostering collaboration between the government, private sector, and academic institutions to meet the constantly evolving infrastructural needs of AI. 

As of yet nothing has been adopted. The proposal offers great insight into the stance that the US could take in placing technological innovation and development as a key strategic priority to further establish their monopoly. Combined with Trump’s goal for innovation across the AI industry, we are likely to see the US facilitate projects that allow it to maintain technological superiority. 

Tighter export restrictions on chips and AI technology 

Semiconductors are key to accelerating processing speeds, improving electrical efficiency and harnessing the high computational power needed to maximise AI capabilities. The US policy on semiconductors has recently been altered, capitalising on the recognition of these critical technologies in AI advancement. 

In December 2024, the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced a package of new rules to the semiconductor export control policy. This includes new controls on 24 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and software tools; and new export curbs to 140 countries. The most critical policy addition is the expansion of country-wide chip-level controls to restrict the export of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a type of memory which is indispensable for running increasingly popular AI Applications, including generative AI. 

The rules are designed to impede China’s capability to manufacture advanced-node semiconductors which could be used to produce chips that increase the computing abilities of AI. The tighter export controls are a move by the Biden Administration, coming weeks before Trump’s swearing in. 

Despite the conflict in the Biden and Trump AI agenda, it is unlikely that Trump will repeal Bidens efforts to restrict China's access to advanced semiconductors. Strong export controls on critical AI technology will be a key determining factor in maintaining the US compute power lead, further shaping the regulatory landscape of the US AI Policy.

Improving energy Infrastructure to support AI 

Securing sufficient access to electricity is a significant bottleneck for AI Advancement. As computational power increases so does the demand for electricity to power it. Without the infrastructure to cope with the AI-driven surge in electricity demand, progress will eventually falter. 

Energy breakthroughs, large scale government funding and infrastructure investments are all coming to fruition with the proposed Manhattan project and the race for AI dominance. Efforts are being made to foster a collaborative partnership between the public and private sectors, incentivising investment into infrastructure projects that will provide sufficient energy to allow for further AI Advancements.  

US energy policy is poised to change under the Trump administration. The Republican party platform in July 2024 committed to ‘Unleashing American Energy,’ promising to lift restrictions on energy production and implementing more substantive energy infrastructure. In December 2024, the president elect announced his plans to expedite environmental reviews and federal permits for energy and constructions projects worth more than $1 billion.

No approval guidelines have been announced yet and it is unclear how businesses can skip the traditional regulatory process. It is expected that speedier permission will entail the repeal of environmental and sustainability reviews and regulations which would have otherwise been a hurdle for developers. Deregulation of environmental policies will erase many US efforts to combat climate change, a major setback, say some, for climate action.

Conclusion

As a leader in technological innovation, the US has substantial influence on international efforts to establish a cohesive, AI regulatory approach and standard. 

If the Trump administration leans towards a deregulatory approach and removes selective safeguards to accelerate innovation, its influence could redefine the AI regulatory approach at a global level, setting a long-lasting precedent that could redefine the landscape of AI ethics, accountability, and global cooperation.

Whilst reduced AI controls predicted for the US, there is not a definitive action plan to tackle the regulatory landscape. Until Trump is back in office, there is no real roadmap, and the future risks of AI and its associated infrastructure are uncertain and hard to quantify. Continued close monitoring of the US’s approach to AI governance is recommended in order to fully prepare for this transformative AI period as it takes shape.